Simulador Mundial 2026
Probabilidad de cada selección de llegar a cada ronda del Mundial 2026. Monte Carlo de 10.000 torneos simulados con el modelo Poisson de 11y90.
| # | Selección | G | Octavos | Cuartos | Semis | Final | Campeón |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | España | H | 71.9% | 50.6% | 33.6% | 22.1% | 13.5% |
| 2 | Brasil | C | 69.9% | 48.5% | 31.7% | 20.3% | 12.4% |
| 3 | Argentina | J | 68.1% | 46.3% | 30.4% | 19.0% | 11.6% |
| 4 | Inglaterra | L | 65.8% | 42.8% | 26.2% | 15.2% | 8.6% |
| 5 | Francia | I | 62.8% | 39.2% | 23.8% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
| 6 | Portugal | K | 61.4% | 39.0% | 23.1% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
| 7 | Países Bajos | F | 56.2% | 33.0% | 18.7% | 10.0% | 4.7% |
| 8 | Colombia | K | 55.6% | 31.8% | 17.4% | 9.2% | 4.6% |
| 9 | Alemania | E | 60.3% | 34.9% | 19.1% | 9.2% | 4.4% |
| 10 | Bélgica | G | 57.2% | 32.6% | 17.1% | 8.5% | 3.8% |
| 11 | Uruguay | H | 50.5% | 26.6% | 13.2% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| 12 | Marruecos | C | 49.6% | 26.1% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| 13 | Croacia | L | 49.4% | 25.6% | 12.4% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| 14 | Ecuador | E | 47.4% | 23.7% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| 15 | Suiza | B | 50.7% | 24.9% | 11.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| 16 | Noruega | I | 39.2% | 18.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 17 | Japón | F | 36.2% | 16.7% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 18 | Senegal | I | 36.6% | 16.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 19 | Austria | J | 37.8% | 16.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 20 | México | A | 37.7% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 21 | Suecia | F | 29.5% | 12.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 22 | Australia | D | 29.3% | 11.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 23 | Irán | G | 31.4% | 12.4% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 24 | Turquía | D | 32.9% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 25 | Egipto | G | 30.0% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 26 | Argelia | J | 30.1% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 27 | Chequia | A | 30.5% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 28 | Corea del Sur | A | 27.2% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 29 | Paraguay | D | 28.6% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 30 | Costa de Marfil | E | 32.1% | 12.7% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 31 | Estados Unidos | D | 25.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 32 | Canadá | B | 28.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 33 | Escocia | C | 27.4% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 34 | Túnez | F | 19.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 35 | RD del Congo | K | 13.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 36 | Uzbekistán | K | 13.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 37 | Bosnia y Herzegovina | B | 18.7% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 38 | Ghana | L | 14.3% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 39 | Sudáfrica | A | 15.2% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Cabo Verde | H | 8.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Jordania | J | 6.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Arabia Saudí | H | 10.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Panamá | L | 8.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Qatar | B | 7.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Curazao | E | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Haití | C | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Irak | I | 6.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Nueva Zelanda | G | 6.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Probabilidad de campeón por grupo
La suma de probabilidades de campeón de los 4 equipos de cada grupo. Te dice qué grupos tienen mayor concentración de candidatos al título.
- Grupo H 16.4%
- Grupo C 15.1%
- Grupo J 12.7%
- Grupo K 11.6%
- Grupo L 10.9%
- Grupo I 9.6%
- Grupo E 6.8%
- Grupo F 6.8%
- Grupo G 4.7%
- Grupo B 2.3%
- Grupo D 1.5%
- Grupo A 1.4%
Cómo funciona
Para cada simulación, el modelo:
- Genera goles para los 72 partidos de la fase de grupos siguiendo distribuciones de Poisson independientes con parámetros del modelo.
- Asigna puntos, calcula la clasificación de cada grupo (top 2 + 8 mejores terceros pasan).
- Simula los 32 partidos de eliminación directa, resolviendo empates por sorteo (proxy de penaltis 50/50).
- Repite 10.000 veces y agrega la frecuencia con que cada equipo llega a cada ronda.
El modelo NO incluye factores como lesiones futuras, cambios de entrenador, condiciones meteorológicas o el bracket exacto de eliminación (asume emparejamiento aleatorio entre clasificados, no la estructura fija del cuadro). Estos factores moverían las probabilidades en el margen.