Simulador Mundial 2026
Probabilidad de cada selección de llegar a cada ronda del Mundial 2026. Monte Carlo de 10.000 torneos simulados con el modelo Poisson de 11y90.
| # | Selección | G | Octavos | Cuartos | Semis | Final | Campeón |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | J | 73.7% | 52.5% | 36.4% | 24.8% | 15.9% |
| 2 | España | H | 69.5% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.2% | 13.0% |
| 3 | Inglaterra | L | 67.6% | 44.0% | 26.6% | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| 4 | Brasil | C | 67.9% | 43.9% | 27.5% | 15.6% | 8.8% |
| 5 | Francia | I | 65.7% | 40.9% | 24.1% | 13.7% | 7.4% |
| 6 | Colombia | K | 61.1% | 36.8% | 20.4% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| 7 | Portugal | K | 55.5% | 33.6% | 19.7% | 10.4% | 5.2% |
| 8 | Marruecos | C | 59.8% | 33.6% | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.7% |
| 9 | Alemania | E | 60.7% | 34.8% | 19.0% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| 10 | Países Bajos | F | 53.6% | 30.4% | 16.0% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| 11 | Bélgica | G | 51.9% | 26.9% | 13.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| 12 | Suiza | B | 54.7% | 27.5% | 13.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% |
| 13 | Noruega | I | 52.4% | 27.3% | 13.1% | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| 14 | Uruguay | H | 40.1% | 21.1% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| 15 | Japón | F | 43.4% | 21.3% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| 16 | Ecuador | E | 38.6% | 19.2% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 17 | Croacia | L | 42.0% | 19.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 18 | Austria | J | 46.1% | 21.0% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 19 | Senegal | I | 33.1% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 20 | México | A | 45.9% | 19.5% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 21 | Suecia | F | 38.9% | 15.8% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 22 | Canadá | B | 42.5% | 16.6% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 23 | Estados Unidos | D | 41.0% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 24 | Egipto | G | 32.8% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 25 | Australia | D | 38.4% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 26 | Paraguay | D | 34.0% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 27 | Costa de Marfil | E | 41.4% | 16.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 28 | Argelia | J | 26.4% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 29 | Escocia | C | 31.1% | 11.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 30 | Corea del Sur | A | 32.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 31 | Irán | G | 19.1% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 32 | RD del Congo | K | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 33 | Chequia | A | 10.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 34 | Turquía | D | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 35 | Cabo Verde | H | 15.1% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 36 | Uzbekistán | K | 8.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 37 | Jordania | J | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 38 | Sudáfrica | A | 7.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 39 | Ghana | L | 24.2% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 40 | Arabia Saudí | H | 10.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 41 | Nueva Zelanda | G | 6.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 42 | Bosnia y Herzegovina | B | 13.4% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 43 | Curazao | E | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 44 | Haití | C | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 45 | Irak | I | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 46 | Panamá | L | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 47 | Qatar | B | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 48 | Túnez | F | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Probabilidad de campeón por grupo
La suma de probabilidades de campeón de los 4 equipos de cada grupo. Te dice qué grupos tienen mayor concentración de candidatos al título.
- Grupo J 17.6%
- Grupo H 15.2%
- Grupo C 13.7%
- Grupo I 10.8%
- Grupo K 10.7%
- Grupo L 10.3%
- Grupo E 6.4%
- Grupo F 6.1%
- Grupo G 3.6%
- Grupo B 2.9%
- Grupo D 1.5%
- Grupo A 1.1%
Cómo funciona
Para cada simulación, el modelo:
- Genera goles para los 72 partidos de la fase de grupos siguiendo distribuciones de Poisson independientes con parámetros del modelo.
- Asigna puntos, calcula la clasificación de cada grupo (top 2 + 8 mejores terceros pasan).
- Simula los 32 partidos de eliminación directa, resolviendo empates por sorteo (proxy de penaltis 50/50).
- Repite 10.000 veces y agrega la frecuencia con que cada equipo llega a cada ronda.
El modelo NO incluye factores como lesiones futuras, cambios de entrenador, condiciones meteorológicas o el bracket exacto de eliminación (asume emparejamiento aleatorio entre clasificados, no la estructura fija del cuadro). Estos factores moverían las probabilidades en el margen.